It’s been a rough year for America already. After last year’s disastrous Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Maria where residents are still rebuilding from the destruction, other extreme weather like floods, wildfires, and heatwaves have plagued the coastal areas.

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The facts and the experiences are undisputed. All over the United States, cities are experiencing droughts and record-breaking temperatures, making 2018 likely the hottest year on record. If it breaks the records, 2018 would then take over the scorching weather from recent 2016 and 2015 which currently hold the first and second places respectively. The UK is also experiencing the driest summer in modern history while Japan is also facing record-breaking hot temperatures up to 106 °F in some areas.

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Furthermore, three of California’s worst ever fires are currently razing communities and forests to the ground at this very moment. According to Jennifer Balch, professor in geography and director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado Boulder, “We see five times more large fires today than we did in the 1970s.” Heatwaves seem to return more frequently and with greater intensity each summer, and there is concrete data to prove the alarming trend. But these severe weather patterns are happening across the globe, from Greece to the Arctic, and from the Great Barrier Reef to Japan’s mountains.

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But, what hasn’t been fleshed out as concretely is the connection between the increase in extreme weather and climate change. While the changes seem to correlate, what actually proves that global warming worsens these events?

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Climatology and statistics.

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With so many variables influencing our atmosphere and planet, it’s hard to pinpoint how the directly climate change affects the frequency of extreme weather. However, a new study from Scandinavia which took historical heatwave data ranging all the way from the 1900's at numerous Northern European climate stations found that human-made climate change has made the probability heatwaves around two times more likely than it was a century ago. However, these probabilities change depending on the Scandinavian country, so it’s logical to assume that the probabilities will also be different for the rest of the world.

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In order to conduct this study, the scientists, which included renowned climatologist Michael Mann and colleagues, created models of the progression of heat waves throughout time without the influence of human-made climate change, using statistics and a newer modeling technique called attribution studies. These studies utilized the fast processing of modern computers and advanced algorithms to design accurate graphs which almost guarantee that climate change made disasters like the 2017 “Lucifer” heatwave through Europe and and Hurricane Harvey three to ten times more likely.

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Climatology also supports the hypothetical correlation between global warming and the frequency of heat waves.

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Studies indicate that climate change will make rainfall and flooding more severe in the event of a hurricane because the melting ice caps lead more more moisture and humidity in the air. While there is no definite proof that there will be a more tropical cyclones, climate scientists have concluded that the storms will generally be more severe and last longer, causing more damage to communities. As stated in a recent study, “In general, the maximum moisture content of air increases with 6%–8.5% per degree warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship.” Given that the planet has warmed 1.2 degrees since pre-industrial levels, the increased moisture levels have already begun to worsen storms.

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Climate change has slowed the pace of jet stream winds due to melting ice and warming temperatures in the Arctic area. These currents, which typically bring cool weather to the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, are now making the summers longer and drier than usual. According to The Guardian, “The jet stream forms a boundary between the cold north and the warmer south, but the lower temperature difference means the winds are now weaker. This means the jet stream meanders more, with big loops bringing warm air to the frozen north and cold air into warmer southern climes.”

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Though seemingly contradictory, climate change also increases the severity of snowstorms by pulling down frigid temperatures to temperate areas. These areas are not only ill-prepared for long, unexpected storms, but also the melting snow consequently leaves flooding and infrastructure instability in its wake.

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Climate change also makes these circulatory patterns more unpredictable. Rather than circulating air in a predictable pattern, the jet stream now lingers in certain areas, creating a “blocking effect” and allowing for a greater probability of extreme weather. Unpredictable weather patterns can dump unprecedented amounts of rain on a city one summer and then consecutive heatwaves the next.

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Not only do extreme weather and climate disasters obliterate the environment and cities, but they also take a heavy toll on the economy. According to the NOAA, the U.S. had to pay more than $300 billion for damages, and these costs will only grow as more land becomes developed and these disasters occur more frequently.

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Despite the issues ranging from costly repairs to civilian safety, this growing problem will be difficult and slow to solve. The most efficient, short-term course of action now would be to improve our ability to predict the path and probability of storms. With more accurate predictions and more effective procedures to combat sudden events, we may be able to alleviate the increasingly urgent deterioration of the environment.